Toronto Blue Jays

Going into this season, this Toronto Blue Jays team will be put under tremendous pressure to succeed. After an offseason full of top-notch moves, this team is looking to contend for the AL East division title, or even a World Series. Also, former manager John Gibbons will be returning to help bring this team a title to Canada. This Blue Jays team will be hard to evaluate. Is it easy to call them a division winner because of what is on paper, or is there more uncertainty than meets the eye?

Offense: A-

Lets start off by talking about the new additions. We know a guy like SS Jose Reyes (.287/.347/.433) will be valuable to any line-up. Going into this new stadium, filled with fantastic AstroTurf, Jose’s numbers will only increase; specifically in areas such as: doubles and triples (37 2B & 12 3B). This is because when the ball hits the ground on AstroTurf it skips faster than on regular grass, which will lead to more balls falling in the gaps. This same concept can apply to 2B Emilio Bonifacio (.296/.360/.393), assuming that he can stay healthy. The benefits of Emilio’s health will be crucial to this team, considering that he has been able to limit his fly ball rate and increase his line drive and ground ball rate. Melky Cabrera will be an interesting case. Melky has just come off a 50-game suspension for PED use (.346/.390/.516 with 51 hits) and is now being investigated in the Anthony Bosch cases in Miami. It will be uncertain which Melky we will see in 2013, since his numbers show a substantial difference between PED usage and “Non-PED” usage. My guess is that we will see a good Melky, but not a fantastic one like the one we saw in San Francisco. With the existing players from last year’s 2012 team, we can expect RF Jose Bautista (.241/.358/.527 with 27 HR by all-star break) to come back from his wrist injury and return back to his home-run hitting form. Edwin Encarnacion (.280/.384/.557 with 42 HR) is a different, yet similar, story. Last year his HR total jumped by a substantial 30+ compared to his prior seasons. What’s interesting is that this jump is similar to Jose Bautista’s jump in 2010 at 29 years old. It’s worked out so far, so it will continue to work out in 2013. The final two players to pay attention to this season are Colby Rasmus (.223/.289/.400) and Brett Lawrie (.273/.324/.405). Although they are young, they will help set the tempo of this team and their production is crucial to the success of this team. Since joining the Blue Jays in 2011 (via trade), Colby has not hit well. At only 25 years old, Colby has a good swing with quick hands but is lacking the plate discipline that he should have at this stage in his career. With more hitters in the lineup, it is expected that he will hit lower in the lineup, which can actually help revitalize his hitting career. In 178 games over his career and when hitting in the 5th or 6th position of the line-up, Colby hits .261/.335/.488 (.823 OPS). This is a game changer and is an option that the Blue Jays should pursue. At 22 years old, Brett Lawrie shows that he is the type of player that you keep around for a long time. He hits the ball aggressively and is great defender. His biggest challenge this season will be to limit his strikeouts and stay healthy. If both become the case, you’ll be seeing a possible MVP candidate coming out of Toronto.

Pitching: B+

This years pitching rotation sees three new faces that will make up the top 3 pitchers in the rotation. First, is last years NL Cy Young winner RHP RA Dickey (20-6 with 2.73 ERA & 230 K’s). Dickey has revolutionized the way the knuckleball is thrown. His ability to throw the knuckleball at such a high speed (83-80 mph), causes the deception and movement of the ball to be out of this world. Most knuckleballers tend at have a lot of variation from year to year, but I expect Dickey to have another solid year with 15+ wins. RHP Josh Johnson (8-14 with 3.81 ERA) and LHP Mark Buerhle (13-13 with 3.74 ERA) are coming from a bad position with last year’s marlins team and will be looking for a fresh start in Toronto. Josh is coming back from his worst full season as a starter, but it seems his shoulder is holding up well; which shows good signs going forward. Mark continues to prove that he can a workforce for any team he is on (12 consecutive 200+ win seasons) and that he can succeed at the Rogers Center. He will be a valuable asset for this Toronto Blue Jays team and, looking down the stretch, will be very influential on their playoff run this year. RHP Brandon Morrow (10-7 with 2.96 ERA) will be coming back from his best shortened season and will need to prove that he can maintain that low ERA. LHP Ricky Romero (9-14 with 5.77 ERA) will finish off this rotation with a question mark. It’s no doubt he had an awful year last year, but this shouldn’t be looked at as a trend for the future. With four other great pitchers in the rotation, he will benefit from having the stress taken off his shoulders. I see him producing something between his 2010 and 2011 numbers, which will be a step in the right direction. Casey Janssen (22 saves) seems to be the clear favorite as the closer this season and will need to build upon last years 22 save season. Also, Sergio Santos (30 saves in 2011) may be the player who has most to prove going into this season. His shoulder injury knocked him out for the rest of the season and will need to prove he can be as effective as he was in 2011 with the White Sox.

Fielding: B-
Cabrera (-1.7 UZR), Rasmus (0.0 UZR), and Bautista (0.8 UZR) will make up the big three in the outfield in the hitters aspect, but not so much in the fielding aspect. All three have had multiple seasons of negative UZR’s and below league average fielding %. Strong point comes in the arms as Jose Bautista will be more of a threat with the power arm, but it’s an otherwise weak defensive outfield. In the infield it is a little more different, because of new additions such as Jose Reyes (.988 Fielding %) and Maicer Izturis (4.7 UZR at 2B). Jose is a solid glove at the position and Maicer will be a great defensive substitute late in games to help keep the defense strong. My favorite glove in the infield has to be Brett Lawrie (6.5 UZR) who showed countless times last year that he can make great plays. His quick reactions and strong arm make him a premier glove at third base. Even thought he may not be on Evan Longoria’s level at this point, he is still an interesting glove to watch. Although C JP Arencibia (22 CS to 53 SB) may not have former prospect Travis D’Arnaud’s bat, he makes up for it by being a solid defender, who will be crucial to the success of this pitching staff this season.

Overall: B+

The Blue Jays did a lot of shopping around this offseason and only time will tell if this team is the real deal or not. My guess is that the Blue Jays go as far as competing for the wild card, but it may be a year or two before I announce them division winners…or even World Series Champions.

*(AVG/OBP/SLG)
*UZR= Ultimate Zone Rating
*ERA= Earned Run Average